The technologies and materials slated to go into future powertrain and body structures will present a host of new challenges for the collision repair and insurance industries. Those most adept to technological change will likely meet those challenges and stay ahead of the curve. As stated in the introduction, however, ‘future-gazing’ is an inexact art. In fact, the experts—OEMs, research and development laboratories and collision repair industry experts—aren’t sure of all the answers, particularly when considering the far edge of a 10-year outlook.

It is clear that the rate of technological advancements is moving forward in what feels like a compressed timeline. As it relates to the consumer, this can be partially attributed to an industry shift of sorts. Automobile consumers help drive the market through demand, compounding the traditional impact of new technology filling gaps previously unaddressed. The consumer wants it, therefore the manufacturers work to find an economical way to deliver.

Electronics Explosion
Electronics has a massive impact on our daily habits; US consumers in 2005 spent more than $76.9 billion on consumer electronics alone. The auto industry isn’t skimping in this area either. Computer semiconductor sales for automobile applications reached $15 billion in 2005.

Tire-monitoring systems, continuously variable transmissions, heads-up driver displays, intelligent cruise control and adaptive transmission control are just some of the technologies woven into vehicles. This work is also commonly referred to as mechatronics, described as ‘the intersection of mechanics, electronics, computers and controls.’[1]

“In automotive terms, these next few years of electronics development are pretty well defined,” noted Roger Shulze, director of The Institute for Advanced Vehicle Systems (IAVS), part of the College of Engineering and Computer Science at the University of Michigan—Dearborn. “These are the technologies and ideas engineers have been working on for the last few years and which we’re seeing move into production vehicles today.”

As the level of mechatronics sophistication escalates, the successful repair center of tomorrow will face increasingly technical repairs. The ability to repair them to OEM specification will require new skills, equipment and procedures. For example, a vehicle in 2002 had an average of 74 sensors: that number is projected to reach 175 by 2010.

There is one example of mechatronic technology that is generating a lot of interest and may have far-reaching implications in the next five to 10 years. Telematics (the two-way electronic transmission of data between a stationary source and a vehicle) is currently a $9 billion industry, making appearances on the dashboards and steering wheels of luxury and mid-market vehicles via items such as GPS systems and Internet service provider information. That revenue is projected to jump to a possible $40 billion in the next 10 years, extending its reach to a two-way pipeline of communication between OEM and vehicle.[2] Some of the information running down that pipeline includes real-time reporting of the physical condition of the vehicle to identify any problems. If anything is detected, the dealer or repairer orders the necessary parts and a call is placed to the driver to schedule the repair.

Michael Robinet, vice president of Global Forecast Services at CSM Worldwide, recognizes the potential reach and impact of telematics, but believes there is a more current and pressing demand on the horizon.

“There is an economic threshold to telematics,” said Robinet. “But the costs keep declining, allowing for more efficient integration into low cost cars every year. At that point, there may be more adoption.” However, he believes electronics will play a more immediate role, “…Especially in safety and powertrain management as emissions regulations are increasingly met through powertrain maximization.”

Most notable is the development of the electric-gasoline hybrid vehicle. Hybrids are projected to proliferate over the next five years, with companies like Ford’s pledge to produce 250,000 hybrid vehicles annually by 2010.[3] With numbers like that, technicians will need to apply new skills to repair them, such as working knowledge around its high-voltage battery and related systems. This will also require repairers to invest in new equipment.

With a charge of up to 276 volts, hybrid batteries produce well above what it takes to produce a fatal shock. OEMs have built in several safety measures, however, including immediately cutting electrical power if an airbag is activated during an impact.[4] But as hybrids get rolling down the road, will there be another technology—or technologies—that will present other opportunities?

Ten Years Down
“We will see a shake out of all of these power plant alternatives,” said Shulze. He believes that hybrid technology; at least hybrid technology in its current form won’t be one of the prevailing technologies, except possibly for urban vehicles (buses, delivery vans).

“For the foreseeable future, internal combustion engines will play a significant role in the transportation industry,” said Dan Hancock, vice president of engineering operations at General Motors’ Powertrain Division. “Where the engines begin to differ, is what kind of fuel on which the vehicle will be running. Gasoline, diesel, hydrogen and other liquid fuels are all viable opportunities that will incorporate new technologies such as variances in displacement, compression and valve timing.”

What will win out? Shulze believes economics on more of a global scale will tell the tale. “The marketplace is going to tell you what the right answer is,” Shulze said.

Building a Better Body with Technology
Not exactly the $6 Million Dollar Man-type of technology, but the future is bringing new and different ways collision repair centers learn, understand and work with emerging materials OEMs are—and will be—using in body construction. As these materials become commonplace, their use in vehicles at all price points will become prevalent.

In order for a repair to meet exact OEM specification, there needs to be an investment in training, equipment, tools and processes. Some of these new materials—boron steel, aluminum laminates, plastic-steel laminates, carbon laminates, and hydroformed frames—are already appearing in luxury vehicles. So will plastics and new metal be the end of the line in 10 years? Not according to Bill Gouse, executive director for the US Council for Automotive Research—a research and collaborative engineering organization partner of General Motors, Ford and Daimler-Chrysler.

“I see a trend of increasing the use of more elegant, sophisticated materials in bodies over the next five to 10 years, including carbon fiber, high strength steels, aluminums and composites of all of the above,” said Gouse.

Projected for use on low-volume boutique vehicles, hydroform frame technology will permit OEMs to create a more profitable way to meet a niche market. Which of these materials will be the prevailing body construction over the course of the next 10 years is much like the powertrain situation, in that larger outside economic forces will most likely dictate the wave of the future. Variables include raw material cost, supply, and manufacturing and reparability costs. One thing can, however, be counted on as a constant: an opportunity for substantial change in the years to come.

Majorie Allen is manager of Autobody Market Solutions at CCC Information Services, Inc.

1. “Mechatronics: The Language of the Automobile,” ABRN Magazine, February, 2006
2. “Automotive Telematics: Driving Toward the Wireless World,” Vol. 3, Issue 2, Booz, Allen & Hamilton, Vol. 3, Issue 2
3. “Hybrids: Are You Ready to Repair Them?” ABRN Magazine, Jan. 9, 2006
4. “Hybrids: Are You Ready to Repair Them?” ABRN Magazine, Jan. 9, 2006